🔗 Share this article

A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."

Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate

The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.

Debates range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has got something to gain from the other's positions."

Appeal for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."